Sunday, March 27, 2011

 College Hoops Musings...


While watching all the college basketball this weekend I learned a lot. Here is a list of the things that stuck with me.


1) Billy Donovan lost the Butler game.
I was astounded at how the Gators finished both regular time and overtime. Billy Donovan had 30 seconds and a tie game to work with, and what does he do? He runs an isolation play for Walker, who was 1-10 shooting during the game and 1-7 from 3 point range. Walker got a pick and took a 21 foot jumpshot. Unreal. In overtime Florida came down with 10 seconds left and Walker hoisted a 23 foot three pointer with 8 seconds left.
Unquestionably, Billy Donovan is at fault for these decisions. My buddy Pat put it best, he wondered why every single team doesn't have one bread and butter play. You run it, it works, you score. If it doesn't work, at least you look like you had a prepared team.
Donovan threw his players under the bus a bit by saying that his players didn't get loose balls and missed shots. Florida should still be playing, or at least they should have had a coach who could draw up a play in a timeout rather than turning the end of the game into a pick-up game at your local YMCA.


Erving Walker cannot resist a "Hero Shot."

2) Players are hypnotized by the three point line.
College basketball games can turn on 3 point shooting. Just ask Kansas or VCU. Their game came down to the shots VCU hit from behind the arc the entire game. Jimmer Fredette at the end of the their loss to Florida just started chucking up threes. Sometimes I wonder if a lot of these players see the tournament as a huge tryout. They spend time thinking, "I can show off my range right now and shoot from 5 feet behind the line."
I think the 3 point line is great in college, it gives lesser teams a great chance at an upset and makes leads between 6 and 11 points so much smaller than they seem. However, I am shocked at how fixated a lot of players get on the line.


3) College basketball as a whole is declining.
I am no student of college basketball however when you look at the history of low seeds making deep runs it is getting more and more regular. The counter-point to my belief would be this, "college basketball has more parity, the talent is deeper. Making it possible for an 8 seed to make the Final Four."
I disagree with that. I think the game has taken a different turn. Here is my counter-point:
College basketball has two distinct levels now. One level is the "high level." This level consists of big conference teams. These teams make the money, these teams get the big recruits. These teams are coached by guys whose hair is greasy, can recruit well, and after they leave their wins will be vacated. The "low level" teams are different. They cannot go get big name recruits, they have to depend on grassroots and smart recruiting, values, and longevity (both players and coaches). They need a coach who is going to instill a program and depend on senior leadership. VCU and Butler are the poster children for those programs, Holy Cross is the anti-thesis (bitterness alert!)
How does this lead to a decline in college basketball? I think it is because players are leaving early, the top teams are not as talented, and the level of the "low level" has come up. They have a blueprint, they have patience. The "high level" teams have no patience. They need to win, they need to get players into the NBA.
Kentucky is currently playing UNC as I write this. They have three starting freshman and two sophomores. This is a year removed from a KU team blessed with three freshman who left for the NBA (John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Eric Bledsoe). There is no continuity, the "low level" teams have continuity and patience.


Overall, I have loved watching the tournament. It will be interesting to see if the potential lock-out keeps more players in college next year. Making a better overall product for a season.


Links:
Great 60 Minutes piece on Bobby Hurley's dad, the coach at St. Anthony's in Jersey City.
Nicholas Cage losing his mind... (credit to my buddy Pat).
Don't be a bully ...

1 comment:

Dan said...

I agree with your overall assessment of college basketball, although I hesitate to say "decline", I would use "transition". Freshmen still do not have a great track record in the NBA, and I think teams will start deciding against drafting the freshman with the incredible potential but no basketball IQ vs the four year senior who will immediately become a contributing sub (kind of like drafting high school pitchers).
Undoubtably, the incredible teams of the 90's and early 2000's were the big time schools and had 4 year starters (UNLV, Duke, UNC), and they would certainly be odds-on favorites to crush anyone this year. BUT, the mid-majors, or maybe just Butler, not only attract talented players but have an innovative coach who actually runs plays.
So we'll see, I expect a Moneyball style revolution in basketball where Youk's equivalent is finally recognized, and the tantalizing freshman talent is passed over someone who actually executes.