Where do we go from here?

I have no idea what happened. Did it really happen? Did the Pats really look like any other team in the playoffs? Are people really saying the dynasty is done? Yes, yes, and (gulp) yes.

As I was sitting and watching the game with some friends I fell into the most painful and aggravating system of sports spectating. This is when you are simply creating scenarios in your head that put your team back into contention. When you say, "alright if they can get a touchdown here and make a quick stop and then a quick score, then this is a game again." Sometimes this happens (See: Lakers v. Celts game 4 2008; Sox v. Rays game 5 ALCS 2008; and Pats v. Raiders Division Champ. game 2002). Those were all games where you told yourself something great could happen and it did.



Have you seen this man? Oh yeah, he had 13 tackles on Sunday...

This time it was not to be. The Pats had nothing yesterday, they had no grasp on the past, they had no grasp on what it takes to win a playoff game. Unfortunately the Ravens did. They had a fantastic start then simply ran the ball 52 times and only threw it 10 times. 10 times!! That is absurd. The Raven start allowed them to hide their weaknesses: a weak passing game and unbalanced offense. Whereas the Pats slow start made it so that their weaknesses were exposed: a bad O-line that couldn't block a defense with their ears pinned back, a depleted core of skill position players, and a front seven that is mediocre at best.

The Pats are now left with a lot of questions, and more important they have lost many disciples. "In Bill we trust" is dying with every shaky draft pick and ornery press conference (Did anyone else Bill was a little touchy after the game?) The famous "5 year grace period" after a Championship is long gone. We are in year 6 since their last Super Bowl win. Which is quite shocking, I remember being somewhat uninspired by the last Super Bowl win. We were spoiled and we thought it would last forever. Sunday was the kick in the private parts that a lot of people needed. It is not going to last forever. Just ask 49er fans. Even Cowboy fans did have a playoff win in 12 years until this past weekend.

The Patriots are in a tight spot and in my mind I do not see them getting much better. I definitely do not see them getting enough talent to make another Super Bowl bid. The holes they have to fill are big and there are a lot of them. In my mind I would put them in this order:

1) Defense backfield- Cornerbacks got fried this year. They are old and have trouble covering. Even though they are old, they have no leadership back there. That is a bad combination.

2) Pass rush/ front 7- This might go hand in hand with #1. If the front 7 can create pressure then it makes the coverage in the secondary easier. If the secondary covers better it create more time to pressure the QB. Either way, these are things that need to be improved.

3) Offensive Line help- Brady was only sacked 16 times this year. However, he was also probably hit harder on numerous occasions than I can remember. Between his knee and the target on his back Brady had moments where he looked very different. The offensive line could see 4 new players next year. Sebastian Volmer seems to be a bright spot, and next year he could be the only returner. Lets hope the Pats do not go "bargain basement" to solve this issue.

4) Get your coordinators in order- The delegation of jobs needs to be clarified. Questions like, "who is calling the plays" and "who is the offensive coordinator" are not ones that get asked of Super Bowl Champs.


Steve Breaston. He would look good with a flying Elvis on his hat...

5) Receivers - Moss is getting older and seems to break down in the playoffs. 2007 and this season are evidence of that. We have no idea what Welker will be like, and he might not be back until mid-season next year. Ben Watson does not seem to be improving. Sam Aiken is a special teams player. Where does that leave us? The Pats have no sure things next year at receiver. What a difference a few years makes. Here is a list of Wide Receiver free agents, some are restricted:

Brandon Marshall- Not a guy you bring on while you try to figure things out. Too much of a headcase. But man he can play when he is happy (remind you of anyone?).

Vincent Jackson- Not a bad #2.

Miles Austin - Can't see Jerry Jones letting this one get away. Especially with Roy Williams sucking as much as he does.

Steve Breaston - A #3 in Arizona, could be ready to move up the ladder in New England.

6) A running game - This might go a long with getting a coordinator. Balance is key. Sure it is a passing league, but the lack of a run game made it hard for the Pats to hold a lead on the road. Back in the good old days of the aughts Antoine Smith could get you 4 yards in the fourth quarter and rack up some first downs to kill the game. They did not have that this year, and it cost them in Miami and Houston and Indianapolis. You do not need to go spend a ton of money on a guy, you just need to buy into running the ball a little bit.

Clearly the Pats have a lot to do. Let's hope they are ready to move forward and make changes. I sure hope they can

The buzz word.

This past Sunday I was sitting watching the Pats destroy the Jaguars when I received a text message from my buddy Burke. It said, "I honestly would not be surprised if they lost in the first round or won a 4th championship." I responded, "I think they may be peaking, unlike the 2007 team."

That exchange led to me seeing a lot of this buzz word "peaking." Brett Favre used it after the Vikings loss on Monday Night, their third loss in the past four games....excellent. Favre said he would love for the Vikings to be peaking, but that they are not. This led me to look back at the last few Super Bowl Champs. Here is how each of them finished the last six games of the regular season:

Steelers: 5-1 (12-4)
Giants: 3-3 (10-6)
Colts: 3-3 (12-4)
Steelers: 4-2 (11-5) Finished year with 4 straight wins.
Patriots: 5-1 (14-2)
Patriots: 6-0 (14-2)
Bucs: 4-2 (12-4)

Total: 30-12

In the past seven years the Super Bowl Champs have gone 30-12 in their last six games. Now this does not include teams sitting players in the last game or two (cough...Colts...cough). It also does not put into play any intangibles. An improving defense, an offense beginning to click, or quarterback making a deal with the devil (Cough...Eli Manning...cough).

Of these teams the one that struck me the most was the Giants. They sputtered through the whole season. They started 0-2. Then ran off six straight wins before their bye week. Then they lost two of three, putting them at 7-4. People were calling for Coughlin's head, he was finished and his players had quit on him. They finished the last five weeks 3-2, but the biggest game for them? The Patriots loss at the end of the regular season. It can't be measured how motivating that battle was, and it is now the rallying cry for anyone who thinks players should not be rested nearing the end of the season.

Peaking is important, and I have decided to make a peak-o-meter for the teams remaining in the playoff hunt, starting with the NFC...The rating is out of a 10 and is taking into consideration how the team has played over the past 5 weeks (with the next week rounding out my six week trial.)

New Orleans Saints:
Peak-o-meter: 3
Record: 3-2
Streak: 2 losses

This team is struggling, and they have not been struggling for just the past two weeks. A month ago this team decimated the Patriots. It was an embarrassment. It made all Pats fans cash in their chips, in the words of my buddy Burke in an angry voicemail, "Over! The season is over." The Saints since have defeated the Redskins in overtime (a lucky win), the Falcons by three, and lost to the Cowboys and the Bucs (who are 3-12).
The catch phrase from 2007: "blueprint" comes to mind when figuring out this team's recent struggles. Teams have found a way to beat them, even in the Superdome. Run the ball and attack a somewhat disjointed secondary. This team produced oodles of points until the last 2 weeks. Scoring 17 in both losses. That reminds me of a team I rooted for in 2007. Anyone know who I am talking about?



If by "your terms" you mean throwing a stupid INT. Then I hope you are
right Brett.


Minnesota Vikings:
Peak-o-meter: -2
Record:2-3
Streak: 2 losses

Its amazing how the media can portray Favre to be such an outstanding teammate and person, but as soon as anything bad happens to his team we see him pouting and creating trouble. Favre is a huge fair-weather fan, the only problem is he has to play for the team he is complaining about. On NFL Live today some said that "turning the ball over is in Adrian Petersen and Brett Favre's DNA." Uh oh... are they going to need a blood transfusion before the playoffs?
The Vikings are in a position to lose their first round bye if they lose and the Eagles win this Sunday. Personally, I love watching Favre "unpeak" in December.

Philadelphia Eagles:
Peak-o-meter: 9.75
Record: 5-0
Streak: six wins

Philadelphia's success this decade has been amazing. Sure teams every decade are successful without winning a Super Bowl (Bills in the 90's). But how many teams have a quarterback and a coach who have thought "should I pack my bags and stick a for sale sign in my yard?" more than Andy Reid and McNabb. It is amazing that these two guys have survived as long as they have. Philly fans seem to hate both, but they have brought a great deal of success to the city.
I hope these guys can make it deep into the playoffs. A win and a Vikings loss locks up a bye, but it begs the question. Do they NEED it? They are on a roll right now, would a bye hurt them? Maybe. But they have to play to win, because a loss to the Cowboy could mean they are travelling for wildcard weekend.

Dallas Cowboys:
Peak-o-meter: 6.5
Record: 3-2 Including a win over the Saints....
Streak: 2 wins

What is there to write about the Cowboys? They are so poorly coached and Romo is simply not a good quarterback when he needs to be. This game on Sunday with the Eagles will be huge in their peak rating. They have been playing better, but they are always a team who just does not make me nervous. Another disappointing playoff exit is on the horizon for Cowboy fans I fear.



Are you ready Dallas?

Arizona Cardinals:
Peak-o-meter: 7.25
Record: 4-1
Streak: 2 wins

The defending NFC Champs are just starting to heat up. The one big strike against them, they have played some really really bad teams in the last 2 months. Check out their opponents starting November 8: @CHI, SEA, @St. Louis, @TENN, MINN, @SAN FRAN, @DET, St. LOU. That is astounding. Now, they are beating those teams, but they suck. The only big test was the Vikings game. They went in there and handled their business.

We are left to wonder a few things about this team. Are they road tested now? Can they draw from their massive success last year in the playoffs? Will Kurt Warner stay healthy throughout the entire playoffs?

Sidenote: Will a successful playoff run lock Kurt Warner into the Hall of Fame. It was a debated point last year, but would it be again this year if he took his team to the NFC Championship game or Super Bowl with some big numbers? Just a thought...

Green Bay Packers:
Peak-o-meter: 7.75
Record: 3-1 (6-1 in last 7 though...)
Streak: 1 win

This team is peaking, no doubt. Their defense is a little beat up and they are torched by the Steelers last week in that classic. However, that is their only loss since November 8. They are playing good football and Aaron Rodgers seems to be gaining some steam every week. This is a team that might get lucky with a first round home game in fridgid Green Bay. But they can play anywhere. Ryan Grant could be a ticket to a deep run. Only time will tell...

AFC rankings coming on Thursday.