Boston-Homer

Big Ben thoughts and Super Bowl predicition.

Its Super Bowl time! I have avoided a lot of Super Bowl talk the past two weeks, mainly because I find the media somewhat insufferable during Super Bowl week. They throw out superlatives before anything has even been decided. Big Ben is now a hero, Aaron Rodgers is the Holy Son of Green Bay, blah, blah, blah.

This game has one massive storyline that I think has been completely ignored. Big Ben is not a year removed from a 6 games suspension for sexual assault. Now he has reached a point where he is a "redemption story." I wrote about Vick and Tiger and their silly redemption stories. Big Ben has admitted no wrong-doing. The only thing he has admitted to is that he has rediscovered his spirituality (by spirituality does he mean "penis?").

I think it is pathetic that Peter King has written an article about the Patriots Spygate this week. Picking a scab that is three years old. Do I value investigative journalism? Yes. Why write that article this week? Media members are pretty sackless sometimes. An article ripping Big Ben apart is a bad investment, because you may never get an interview or soundbite again. Ripping the Pats? Ripping Bill Bellichick is easy because he stonewalls everyone in the media anyway.

Big Ben is a sexual predator that can play football. He plays football very well. However, he is not being held to task for choices he made. Frankly, I think that is too bad. If the Steelers pull out this Super Bowl he will be forgiven for all his mistakes, he will do the Letterman, Leno, Conan circuit. Hell maybe he will shave his beard for charity again. What a guy.

Will Big Ben play like a champion on Sunday? Probably...ugh..

Anyway, on to the game...

It seems like the majority of people are taking the Packers. They like the way their offense matches up with the Steelers defense. People are comparing it to the Patriots offense that spread out the Steelers defense and picked them apart with short passing. This would neutralize the dynamic Pittsburgh linebackers if the Packers spread the field with a lot of receivers.

What do the Packers need do to win?

1) Get an early lead and do not take your foot off the gas peddle. The Packers have been a very solid team coming out of the gate. Their three wins in the playoffs were all proof of that. The Falcons were the only team they did not let back into the game. The Eagles and Bears both had chances at the end of the game, even though the Packers led by 10+ points late in both games. Mike McCarthy's play calling will be very important in this game.

2) Use the short passing game as a replacement for running the ball a lot. The Steelers defense is awesome against the run. They only allow 62 yards a game on the ground, first in the league. The Packers believe they have to run the ball a lot in order to win most games. For their sake, I hope they change that belief for this game.

3) Let Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, and Clay Matthews create plays on defense.  These guys are the key to winning the turnover battle. B.J Raji made a great play against the Bears, scoring a huge touchdown which at the time did not see like it was a touchdown they needed. In the end, it was extremely important. With the Steelers' star center out with an injury, Raji's play could swing this game. Big Ben is tough to bring down, but Raji may be the man for the job.

BJ Raji could be the key to this game.

What do the Steelers need do to win?

1) Run the football well early to open up the game. The Packers are 5th in passing defense, but 18th against the run. The Steelers' Rashard Mendenhall killed the Jets in the AFC Championship. He ran the ball early in the game, slowing down the game. The Steelers opening drive was 10 minutes long. The Steelers will have to run the ball to keep the explosive Packers offense off the field. 

2) Keep Big Ben "local." This is my new phrase for the pocket. Big Ben's skills are the best when he gets out of his neighborhood. He runs around and makes plays outside of the pocket. Keeping him local means he has to only use his arm to beat you. Once he uses his legs you are dead as a defense. He has receivers who know how to play with him. The Packers pass defense is very good, they need to treat Big Ben more like Mike Vick and less like Peyton Manning. Contain, contain, contain.

3) Bend but don't break. The Patriots have been famous for this. Let the opponent move the ball until they really really want to. When they get into 3rd down and the red zone the Steelers have to make stops. The Packers will move the ball on them, however the Steelers defense is well versed in making those important stops and forcing turnovers. The Steelers have to keep the Packers offense in front of them. No big plays, no silly touchdowns.

Will this be the scene on Sudnay? Tomlin is looking to become the youngest coach with 2 rings.

At the start of the playoffs I made a list of quarterbacks and coaches my buddy Pat and I believe in.  Here is the list again:


The quarterbacks we believe in:

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Big Ben
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees

Guys on the fence:

Mike Vick
Matt Ryan

Coaches we believe in:

Bill Bellichik
Mike Tomlin
Sean Payton

On the fence:

Jim Harbaugh
Andy Reid
Mike McCarthy
Rex Ryan

Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers, and Mike Tomlin all made our cut. Mike McCarthy, even after three road wins is still on our fence. His game management makes me nervous.

The Steelers have the experience, they have the QB/coach combo, and they have the toughness. At the beginning of the playoffs I choose the Packers and Pats to meet in the Super Bowl with the Pats winning.

Now I am faced with a Steelers or Packers decision. The Steelers seem like they have the players who can tilt the balance and win a close game down the stretch. Their experience at quarterback and coach is a huge advantage. Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback, but he is surrounded by a team of first-timers, in the end that will end up being the different. And trust me, it kills me to say it.


Prediction (7-3 in playoffs)

Steelers 27 - Packers 21
MVP: Big Ben

Enjoy the game...