Boston-Homer

The Final Four...

I find myself sad this week. Sad that I do not have a football team in the race anymore. Sad that other people still do. Jealous as hell that co-workers who root for the Steelers, Jets, Packers, and Bears can all settle into Sundays game with a genuine rooting interest. I don't have one, and it stings. The thing that hurts the most is I should, if the Pats showed up to play or if the Jets made one stinking mistake last weekend the Steelers would be coming to Foxboro. Ugh...

Anyway, onto the Conference Championship predictions.

NFC Championship Game 
Green Bay Packers AT Chicago Bears (+3.5)
3:00PM Eastern

The Packers are the hot favorite in this game. They demolished the best team in the NFC last weekend in Atlanta. They go on the road for a third straight week to frigid Chicago.

What do the Bears have to do to win?
The Bears have a few things that they need to do really well to win this game.

1) Get Devon Hester the ball. This means creating times on offense where he may get the ball in open spaces, however, it also means forcing the Packers to punt from spots on the field where Hester can get the ball. Hester has the ability to change a game in one play.

2) Make James Starks and the Packers running game beat you. Aaron Rodgers is on fire right now. Before the season he was one of two guys I invested in to win the MVP. The other? Tom Brady (Tooting my own horn....). If the Bears can make the Packers run the ball it could be a long day for the Packers. Who knows, the Bears might be taking a page out of the Jets playbook this week and playing a ton of coverage and hoping Peppers and the others on the front line can get to Rodgers.

3) The offense needs to remain balanced. The Bears' Matt Forte is a very good runner. He is explosive and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Him and Walter Peyton are only Bears players to ever have 500 yards receiving and 1000 yards rushing. Greg Olsen had a great game against the Seahawks, however, the Green Bay linebacking corps and secondary are much stronger than the Seahawks. They were terrible in that game. Jay Culter needs to find all his targets and of course he needs to continue taking care of the ball. He is much improved in that category the last two months of the year.

What do the Packers have to do to win?

1) Play great defense. In their week 17 battle the Packers allowed 3 points to the Bears in a 10-3 win. It was a game that was unimportant to Chicago but important to the Packers. The irony of that game is that if the Bears had won the Giants would have made it into the playoffs instead of the Packers. The Packers defense is turning the ball over and they may have the best young defender (Clay Matthews Jr.) and also the best old defender (Charles Woodson). These guys are reeking havoc. B.J. Raji is dominating the middle of the line, taking double teams and allowing Mathews and A.J. Hawk to run around and make plays. This defense is stout, and they will need to make Chicago one dimensional on Sunday. If they do that I think they win big.

2) Run, run, run. James Starks didn't need to have a big game last week. The Packers passing offense was great and the fact that they had short fields and a big lead put no pressure on him to perform. He did have 25 carries and only gained 66. A measly 2.8 yards per carry will not do it against Urlacher and company on Sunday.

 
Just a great picture....


3) Win the kicking game. Obviously Hester is dangerous, however, kicking field goals could be huge in this game. We saw Nick Folk miss a kick early in the Pats-Jets game last week. Early missed field goals can have a big effect on a team's momentum. Kicking to Hester is a no-no. I still don't understand why you don't kick it out of bounds. He averaged 17.1 yards per punt return. That means he turns a 45 yards punt in a 28 yard punt. Punt the ball 38 yards out of bounds. Its a no brainer.

I think overall the things the Packers have to do and also the things the Packers need to have happen are more likely.

Prediction: Green Bay 27- Chicago 22

AFC Championship Game
New York Jets AT Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
6:00 PM Eastern

After a big win over the Pats last week full of trash-talk the Jets this week have taken a completely different tact. They are complementing the Steelers every chance they get. Talking about how much they admire Big Ben and how the Steelers are a fantastic football team. Did Roger Goodell play a Jedi mind trick on the Jets? Personally, (warning: Bitter Pats fan bubbling to the surface) I think part of the Jets sweetness this week is one last slap at the Pats. After calling Brady an asshole and ranting about how disrespectful the Pats are now they are treating the Steelers like they are God's gift to the NFL. I know this is all a game played through the media. I just think it is interesting that all of a sudden the trash-talking Jets are giving the Steelers a little reach around.

What do the Steelers have to do to win the game?

1) Protect Big Ben for the love of God! The Jets defense proved it could get to Brady through disguising coverages and dropping 7 and 8 guys into coverage. Making it hard for Brady to find players quickly. Big Ben is a MUCH better quarterback when a play runs "off-schedule." He is massive and very hard to take down. Big Ben can get rattled though, and I think the Jets are a better team than the Ravens. That Ravens team had a 14 points halftime lead. They were swarming in the first half against the Steelers. The Jets this week might do what they did to the Pats and Colts, sit back and cover as best they can. Or they might end up blitzing the hell out of them and letting Comartie and Revis play man-to-man all evening.



2) Keep the crowd in the game. The Jets are on the road for the third straight game. They have quieted two crowds. Do not let them do it a third time. Heinz Field was a morgue at halftime of the Ravens game. However, that third quarter turnaround made it impossible for the Ravens to function at all. Sanchez is slowly turning into a quarterback we can believe in. His throws great passes late in games and his ability to move in the pocket is outstanding. Having a frenzied crowd will make his job harder on Sunday.

3) Test the Jets secondary. The Pats did not do this enough on Sunday. The Steelers have Mike Wallace who can get behind a defense and stretch them out. They will need to do this to keep the Jets honest. It could be the kind of game where the Steelers come out right away and throw a deep pass. It could change the complexion of the game entirely.

What do the Jets have to do to win?

1) Get the ball to their playmakers. A lot of people talk about the Jets and mention the last minute wins they had against weak opponents this year: Lions, Browns, and Texans. However, they won all those games. They won them because Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards had huge catches. The Steelers cornerbacks are going to be overmatched with these guys on the outside. Polamalu will be busy watching Dustin Keller all afternoon.












2) Do not let Harrison, Farrior, Timmons, and Woodley effect the game. These guys are all great linebackers. They rush the passer, they can cover, and they hit people hard. When you beat the Steelers you neutralize their linebackers. Play action passing and counter running plays will slow down their reaction time.

3) Make sure to score in red zone. I do not trust Nick Folk. Heinz Field is one of the toughest places to kick in the league. This game is going to be close. The Jets need to make sure they get all the points they can. Kicking field goals will be risky business and could cost them a chance at a Super Bowl birth.

The Jets last week said the Pats game was the second most important game in franchise history, only behind the Super Bowl III. How does a team now get up for what is no doubt the second most important game of its franchise's history. The build up for that Pats game was huge. One has to wonder if they blew their load a little bit early. They were flawless last week, outstanding. Their gameplan caught the Pats off guard and it was masterful.

If Rex Ryan can pull this off with this team he deserves all the praise he will undoubtedly receive. However, I think the combination of another road game after a huge game against the Pats will end up catching up them. As Rex Ryan said, "Same old Jets." Yep Rex, same old Jets, losing before they can satisfy its fan base.

Prediction: Steelers 24 - Jets 19